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Quote: Originally posted by Ancient Uncle on 28/12/2021

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Exactly, Colin.
I know someone who can not afford much in the way of a car, but needs one. So she buys an old banger for £2k-£3k and just runs it until it gives up. One of them kept going for 4years. Try that with BEV.
I think we will need a different concept. Not owning a car but perhaps group ownership. After all, ours now spends days sitting on the driveway doing nothing. Mostly used these days for towing and the occasional journey we can not do by bus.

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Quote: Originally posted by Colin21 on 28/12/2021

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Quote: Originally posted by tdrees on 28/12/2021

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I agree that if you tow 400 miles a day over 3 days, and only stop every 200 miles (4.5 hours) then an EV tow car is not for you. If on the other hand you are prepared to stop every 2 1/4 hours for 25 mins or so, the latest generation of 800v based EVs would make the same trip without much additional time at all. For me, the key thing is that new EVs can tow well and can tow reasonable distance with just a little change in mindset and behaviour.
Is it worth that change in mindset? Well that depends on what you want out of your car both solo and towing, and whether or not having an EV is important to you.
For me personally, the minor inconvenience of the shortened range when towing, is more than made up for by the EV towing experience and the Solo driving that the EV provides when both on site and at home. I have a second tow car that can (and previously has) done all my trips on just one refuel stop, but I have stopped using it and choose to use the EV because the total package experience is sooo much better. But it’s a personal choice.

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It is only a personal choice if you have money. For many people if BEVs really are the future, which I personally am yet to be convinced of, then the choice is going to be sticking with what they already have or giving up driving. That is certainly what it will probably be for me and many others like me, and there are a lot more of them than some people realise. Witness the number of 10+ years old cars on the road today.

The big difference when talking about range is that a 20 year old petrol or diesel car will do roughly the same distance on a tankful as it did when it was new, but the same can't be said for BEVs. Unless it has had its batteries replaced recently, a 15 year old BEV probably won't do half the mileage between charges that it did when it was new. It is all very well talking about range when discussing new cars, but what about all those who can only afford 10+ year old cars? Range is just as important for them too. If I have to give up my car because I can no longer afford one it won't be more than a big inconvenience because I am retired, but many people who are currently driving 10+ year old cars are key workers on low incomes. What happens to them?

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Quote: Originally posted by tdrees on 28/12/2021

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There is zero evidence to suggest that a 15 year old BEV built in the last 5 years will lose half its range at age 15. 8-10% yes. Half? No.
There is also no reason that in 15 years it won’t be possible to by a 2nd hand ICE car for those that really want to have one for whatever reason. EVs will come down in price, both new and used, just as ICE cars have.

It goes without saying that choice is limited by funds. I was trying to point out that current technology allows for long distance caravan towing with little deviation from that which we can enjoy today using ICE cars. The personal choice aspect is now one which (if funds are available) will support either drive train (ICE or electric).

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Quote: Originally posted by Ancient Uncle on 28/12/2021

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Regarding the ownership problem or car club.

When (and if) we do eventually get the autonomous car, perhaps it will simply be a question of phoning a supplier and request a car for a particular time to go to a set place. Car drives itself to your pick up point, drops you off at your destination and then goes to its next appointment.

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Quote: Originally posted by Ancient Uncle on 28/12/2021

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Exactly, Colin.
I know someone who can not afford much in the way of a car, but needs one. So she buys an old banger for £2k-£3k and just runs it until it gives up. One of them kept going for 4years. Try that with BEV.

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Quote: Originally posted by Colin21 on 28/12/2021

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Quote: Originally posted by tdrees on 28/12/2021

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There is zero evidence to suggest that a 15 year old BEV built in the last 5 years will lose half its range at age 15. 8-10% yes. Half? No.
There is also no reason that in 15 years it won’t be possible to by a 2nd hand ICE car for those that really want to have one for whatever reason. EVs will come down in price, both new and used, just as ICE cars have.

It goes without saying that choice is limited by funds. I was trying to point out that current technology allows for long distance caravan towing with little deviation from that which we can enjoy today using ICE cars. The personal choice aspect is now one which (if funds are available) will support either drive train (ICE or electric).

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I'm not sure there is any evidence for 8-10% either. Most of the things I have seen either say that they will need replacing long before 15 years or that they will lose much more than 10% of their capacity. In any case, who would buy an EV knowing that the batteries will need replacing soon. I know I wouldn't. As far as I am concerned the only ones worth considering will be those whose batteries have already been replaced recently, and they will be too expensive for me.

I suppose it will depend on many things, such as how many miles the car has done, and how well the batteries have been looked after. How many fast-charges they have had will probably come into it too. I just think there are too many unknowns, and the older the car the more unknowns there will be.

Don't get the idea that I don't like EVs because I would have one like a shot, but it would have to be new or very nearly new, and there's no way I could afford that.

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Quote: Originally posted by Colin21 on 29/12/2021

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Teslas are very expensive cars, way beyond even my wildest dreams. Just a set of batteries alone for one of those would cost 2 or 3 times my total budget for a car.

The problem with buying any used car, especially one over 10 years old, is that you don't know how it has been treated by its previous owner(s). I would be extremely wary about buying a 10+ year old BEV unless I knew it had very recently had a new set of batteries, but then I probably couldn't afford to buy it anyway.

I now do less than 5,000 miles a year. My car hasn't moved since Saturday, and probably won't move again before Sunday. Then it will only probably do a 30 mile round trip. Even though my current car "only" does about 35mpg on average, that is way more than most of the petrol cars I had back in the 1960s and 1970s. My Toyota Spacecruiser only did about 18mpg on a good day, and even my Cortina only did about 25mpg average. Yet my X Trail is twice as powerful as either of them.

I may be quite wrong but I can see a situation in the future where a 15 year old BEV with a new set of batteries will sell for 2 or 3 times my maximum budget, but one with the original batteries will go for scrap value. I wouldn't touch one with a barge-pole.

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Quote: Originally posted by bessie500 on 29/12/2021

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Quote: Originally posted by Ancient Uncle on 28/12/2021

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Exactly, Colin.
I know someone who can not afford much in the way of a car, but needs one. So she buys an old banger for £2k-£3k and just runs it until it gives up. One of them kept going for 4years. Try that with BEV.

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Ancient uncle so your pal that buys the car for 3k has to run it on fuel and service it to ensure that they get the most out of it, I know it’s a bigger outlay but if you saved on fuel cost and service cost, that would enable them to save more money for a better car.
Driving in electric saves me £190 per month, almost £2500 a year saving, us a huge amount of money, even more so to people of low wages or fixed incomes

Bessie

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Quote: Originally posted by saxo1 on 29/12/2021

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Replacement batteries for a Nissan Leaf have dropped by 90% in Japan to app £2000 thanks to their collaboration with a battery refurbishing company, new ones are app £5000, at the launch of the Leaf they were app £20000!
At that rate a BEV will soon compare to an ICE!
saxo1

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Quote: Originally posted by tdrees on 29/12/2021

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Tesla S and X were expensive, partly because batteries were expensive (and have come down in price enormously in the last 7-8 years) and partly because they are super-luxury cars aimed at the premium performance market. They are expensive like high end Merc E and S class and BMW 7 series are expensive. But you would never need a new set of batteries.

Car batteries are intended to last the life of the car just like the engine and drive train is intended to last the life of a car. No one buys a second hand car expecting to replace the engine, or only buys one after the engine has been replaced. Take a look on autotrader today to see how much Tesla S and X sell for after 5 or 6 years. It is absolutely not scrap value.

Part of what is going on here, is the amount of FUD (fear, uncertainty and denial) that has been spread around the lifetime of car batteries by the fossil fuel industry and traditional ICE car industry, is so large that the average joe on the street has a very mixed up view. The idea the car traction batteries have a lifetime that is similar to a phone or laptop battery is commonplace, but utter rubbish.

The real irony is you would be an ideal candidate for an EV. Very low mileage. Driveway you can park on (and presumably charge on?). Little need for long distance. The only issue is the need to tow. Actually a PHEV might suit you very well. A pre 2017 registered one is zero road tax. You would have around 20 to 30 miles of EV only range. Can be charged overnight via a granny lead (no need for an expensive charger install) for about 50p, and will tow a caravan with ease. And most have a manufacturer warranty of around 8 years on the battery pack.

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