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Subject Topic: Are electric cars the future
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Message posted by Colin2130/12/2021 at 11:26am
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Quote: Originally posted by Ancient Uncle on 29/12/2021
Quote: Originally posted by bessie500 on 29/12/2021
Quote: Originally posted by Ancient Uncle on 28/12/2021
Exactly, Colin.
I know someone who can not afford much in the way of a car, but needs one. So she buys an old banger for 2k-3k and just runs it until it gives up. One of them kept going for 4years. Try that with BEV.




Ancient uncle so your pal that buys the car for 3k has to run it on fuel and service it to ensure that they get the most out of it, I know its a bigger outlay but if you saved on fuel cost and service cost, that would enable them to save more money for a better car.
Driving in electric saves me 190 per month, almost 2500 a year saving, us a huge amount of money, even more so to people of low wages or fixed incomes

Bessie




Living on a pension, my friend would find it very difficult to layout more than 2k-3k every few years. OK, so manage without a car for sufficient savings to buy a more expensive, newer car, would mean managing without. Not easy if there is no bus service and nearest shops are say 10 miles away.



It wouldn't be an option for me either. Yes I could get by without a car as I live in a village that still has a few shops, 3 bus routes pass through, and we have a railway station, but I would have to give up a lot. None of my volunteering activities would be possible without a car, and how would I tow my caravan? Not much point in trying to save up for a newer car as by the time I had enough I would probably have had to give up driving, as I'm already in my 70s. If I need a car at all it is now that I need it, not at some time in the future. Who knows how much "future" I have left?



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Colin

Message posted by Devonatheart via mobile 03/1/2022 at 11:49am
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Quote: Originally posted by tdrees on 29/12/2021
Quote: Originally posted by Colin21 on 29/12/2021


���� Driveway you can park on (and presumably charge on?). Little need for long distance. The only issue is the need to tow. Actually a PHEV might suit you very well. A pre 2017 registered one is zero road tax. You would have around 20 to 30 miles of EV only range. Can be charged overnight via a granny lead (no need for an expensive charger install) for about 50p, and will tow a caravan with ease. And most have a manufacturer warranty of around 8 years on the battery pack.





After much deliberation, we are going down the PHEV route for now, Hyundai Tucson Ultimate Plug in Hybrid 4x4, I have also got a pick up truck, which I literally cannot live without, living on Dartmoor. But we also like a nice car for our continental trips and running around where I don�t need a REAL 4x4.

We do quite a few low mileage runs, 20 to 40 miles, family and friends who live in Torbay, poor buggers! We have a driveway where we can plug in, we will use the granny cable, so it seems the ideal compromise for us��Plus it is a lovely car, loaded with spec, and 263 BHP. It will be our first Hyundai, but after the extended road test, it came out on top for us.

Message posted by Colin2103/1/2022 at 1:03pm
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Coming back to the original question, "are electric cars the future", I think it depends exactly what you mean. If you mean will electric cars simply replace what most of us have at the moment, I think the answer is an emphatic no! I remain very unconvinced that will ever happen. However, if you mean will we see a much larger percentage of electric cars on the road, the answer is probably yes.

We are already seeing a big increase in car leasing instead of owning outright, particularly among the better-off. For those much further down the income scale, leasing deals are way too expensive and ownership of a cheap vehicle is the way to go. However, that virtually wipes out BEVs for the time being. It is possible that some electric cars for the less well off may become viable in time, but that will almost certainly depend on the situation with batteries. I see that as being at least 10 years in the future if it happens at all.

What I see as more likely is a complete change of lifestyle, which we are already beginning to see. I can see far less commuting by car in the future, with many more people working from home. I would also predict many people giving up car ownership altogether in favour of joining "car clubs" and hiring by the hour the type of vehicle they need for the particular journey they currently want to make, which could be say a sports-saloon, a pick-up, a people-carrier, or even a van. These could all be electric. This has very significant implications, many of which are highly beneficial, such as far fewer parked cars in residential streets, as the average personally-owned car spends 95% of its life parked somewhere. As a retired person, my car probably spends 99% of its life parked, as indeed it is now. On my driveway. Many other people's though are parked in the surrounding streets. The "car club" option, although unsuitable for some in more rural areas, will also bring about other advantages, such as no road tax, no repair costs, and insurance will only be for the duration of use.

There is much to think about, and undoubtedly much will change over time, so I think it is a much more complex issue than simply swapping our current vehicles for BEVs. In my opinion, for many reasons, that simply isn't going to happen except possibly on a very small scale. On the other hand BEVs lend themselves very readily to the "car club" type of operation, as is already happening in some cities. I think there is a strong possibility that this will expand enormously in the future.




-------------
Best Regards,
Colin

Message posted by tdrees via mobile 03/1/2022 at 2:54pm
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I think you are absolutely right on the car club front, particularly in cities. But I think it will also happen in more rural areas with the availability of full autonomous vehicles. I envisage being able to pre-book (or just request immediately availability) of a car which will drive itself to you for you to then use as you need l, and it will drive its self away when you are done.

Message posted by saxo103/1/2022 at 3:39pm
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[QUOte " I envisage being able to pre-book (or just request immediately availability) of a car which will drive itself to you for you to then use as you need , and it will drive its self away when you are done."


Like a taxi service?
The difference is in the future is the taxi will be electric.
saxo1


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Message posted by Colin2103/1/2022 at 3:42pm
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I don't think full autonomous cars will happen in my lifetime, as I think they are probably still several decades away. We are beginning to see autonomous buses, but even they are still very much at the trial stage. I'm not quite sure how fully autonomous cars are going to pan-out, as in all probability it would need to be an overnight thing. There is just far too much unpredictability with humans, particularly drivers, then there is the question of what would an autonomous car do in the event of a choice between killing a small child on a bike or killing the occupants of the car. Which way would the pre-programmed "morality" go?

Even with railways, driver-less trains rarely if ever mix with trains driven by humans, and there is much greater predictability with trains running on tracks than there is on roads. I have some experience in this field as I'm a former bus and train driver.


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Colin

Message posted by Devonatheart via mobile 03/1/2022 at 4:51pm
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Car club or auto autonomous vehicles would just never work in real rural areas, not for many decades at least. I regularly drive off road, proper off road, drive through flood water, come across livestock, and brake suddenly for wildlife, especially Deer. We are crawling with them. I need to tow, including off road, carry loads of logs, tools such as chainsaws and fencing stuff. I have to continually pull in or reverse in our single track lanes for visitors who dont have a clue about driving in the countryside. Car share just would just not work. That is why I have an old pick up truck which is dented and covered in hedge rash and plastered in mud, my lifestyle simply dictates I have one.

Many people who come up with these bright ideas dont have a clue about rural living or rural lifestyle. The contrast is huge, I do have a regular bus though, a mini bus every Wednesday at 10:10! No banks within a 30 mile round trip, no large supermarkets within the same, not that I ever visit then..Heaven. 👍

Message posted by saxo103/1/2022 at 7:25pm
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I can't see that there is any need for fully autonomous vehicles, I can ring up and a taxi will take me wherever I want to go and return me when I want to.
I can ring a car hire company and they will deliver a car of my choice to my home and pick it up when I have finished.
There are already vehicles that have automatic features that improve safety and these will continue to be improved and designed and are a good thing.
The question was "are electric cars the future" and with a lot of major manufacturers already stating their intention to only produce BEVs in the future it is inevitable that for the foreseeable future electric cars will dominate until some other system is developed to compete with it.
saxo1

Message posted by Colin2103/1/2022 at 10:43pm
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Quote: Originally posted by Devonatheart on 03/1/2022
Car club or auto autonomous vehicles would just never work in real rural areas, not for many decades at least. I regularly drive off road, proper off road, drive through flood water, come across livestock, and brake suddenly for wildlife, especially Deer. We are crawling with them. I need to tow, including off road, carry loads of logs, tools such as chainsaws and fencing stuff. I have to continually pull in or reverse in our single track lanes for visitors who dont have a clue about driving in the countryside. Car share just would just not work. That is why I have an old pick up truck which is dented and covered in hedge rash and plastered in mud, my lifestyle simply dictates I have one.

Many people who come up with these bright ideas dont have a clue about rural living or rural lifestyle. The contrast is huge, I do have a regular bus though, a mini bus every Wednesday at 10:10! No banks within a 30 mile round trip, no large supermarkets within the same, not that I ever visit then..Heaven. 👍



I can see exactly what you are saying, which is why I said that the "club car" system wouldn't work for some, but for many it would, especially those who live in or around towns. Most people have no need for off-road capabilities, but there will always be some who do. Quite how they would get on if only BEVs were available I really don't know. Any more than I know how electric bulldozers or electric combine harvesters will go down. The diesel engine will be with us for a great many years yet, in my opinion.

Funnily enough I needed to visit my bank recently and my nearest branch is 30 miles away. This is in spite of the fact that I have 4 towns within a 6 mile radius of my village.


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Colin

Message posted by saxo103/1/2022 at 10:57pm
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There are already tractors being developed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJOyITolHUk
saxo1

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Message posted by bessie500 via mobile 03/1/2022 at 11:50pm
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I dont really see the point of a car club, if you dont have a car you either get a taxi or hire a car .
I used to work for a vehicle rental company about 25 years ago, we used to get loads of people hiring mondeo sized cars for family holidays every school break, they used to drive Corsas or fiestas as there normal everyday cars.

A guy that I used to work with used to work for hertz, he used to tell us about Asians hiring flash BMWs or Audis around Eid so they could pose to family members.

The car rental market has cars for all occasions.

Bessie

Message posted by saxo104/1/2022 at 9:51am
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Quote" Any more than I know how electric bulldozers or electric combine harvesters will go down. The diesel engine will be with us for a great many years yet, in my opinion."

Heres how:
Pon Equipment, with input and support from Caterpillar, converted a 28-ton CAT 323F excavator from diesel to electric. The diesel engine was replaced with a 122kW electric motor and a 300kWh lithium-ion battery pack that weighs 3.4 tons.

Known as the Z-Line, the modified excavator can work for five to seven hours before needing to be recharged which can be done in one to two hours. Pon Equipment has already sold its first model to a construction company in Norway that is planning to buy more. saxo1

Message posted by tdrees04/1/2022 at 12:17pm
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Quote: Originally posted by saxo1 on 03/1/2022

Like a taxi service?
The difference is in the future is the taxi will be electric.
saxo1




Kind of, except the car drive its self to you, you drive it around while you need it, and it takes its self away after you have finished with it. It's more flexible than a taxi. For example, you could book it for say two weeks to go in holiday, and it does not have a whole seat taken up by the driver, meaning a smaller car may be suitable.

Quote: Originally posted by Colin21 on 03/1/2022
I don't think full autonomous cars will happen in my lifetime, as I think they are probably still several decades away.



They are already driving around on the streets of some US cities. - If you mean in the UK on general country roads, then I agree they are a way off.


Quote:
There is just far too much unpredictability with humans, particularly drivers, then there is the question of what would an autonomous car do in the event of a choice between killing a small child on a bike or killing the occupants of the car. Which way would the pre-programmed "morality" go?



Yes- this is a dilemma, but there are options. For example an autonomous car that only drives its self when it has no human driver, could have options that might allow its self to choose destroying its self in order to protect the child on a bike. I.e. it relies on not having to make that decision to protect a passenger by forcing that decision on a human driver (just as we have now).

Quote: Originally posted by Devonatheart on 03/1/2022
Car club or auto autonomous vehicles would just never work in real rural areas, not for many decades at least. I regularly drive off road, proper off road, drive through flood water, come across livestock, and brake suddenly for wildlife, especially Deer. We are crawling with them. I need to tow, including off road, carry loads of logs, tools such as chainsaws and fencing stuff. I have to continually pull in or reverse in our single track lanes for visitors who dont have a clue about driving in the countryside. Car share just would just not work. That is why I have an old pick up truck which is dented and covered in hedge rash and plastered in mud, my lifestyle simply dictates I have one.

Many people who come up with these bright ideas dont have a clue about rural living or rural lifestyle. The contrast is huge, I do have a regular bus though, a mini bus every Wednesday at 10:10! No banks within a 30 mile round trip, no large supermarkets within the same, not that I ever visit then..Heaven. 👍



What you describe is that a car club might not work for you... That does not mean it would not work for others. Car clubs and autonomous vehicles do not HAVE to go together. Just that one may improve the usefullness of the other in some situations.


Post last edited on 04/01/2022 12:31:23

Message posted by Colin2104/1/2022 at 12:23pm
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Quote: Originally posted by saxo1 on 04/1/2022
Quote" Any more than I know how electric bulldozers or electric combine harvesters will go down. The diesel engine will be with us for a great many years yet, in my opinion."

Heres how:
Pon Equipment, with input and support from Caterpillar, converted a 28-ton CAT 323F excavator from diesel to electric. The diesel engine was replaced with a 122kW electric motor and a 300kWh lithium-ion battery pack that weighs 3.4 tons.

Known as the Z-Line, the modified excavator can work for five to seven hours before needing to be recharged which can be done in one to two hours. Pon Equipment has already sold its first model to a construction company in Norway that is planning to buy more. saxo1



Interesting! I wonder how long it will be before they become mainstream though, I can't see it being any time soon. There are a lot of advantages with electric motors. They are quite simple in construction compared to an ICE, they don't require a gearbox either as they develop full torque from zero rpm, and they are usually much quieter. The biggest problem is energy storage, not a problem for trams, trolley-buses, or trains as they don't have to carry it with them.


-------------
Best Regards,
Colin

Message posted by saxo104/1/2022 at 1:44pm
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When the Nissan leaf was introduced in 2010 I expect a lot of people didn't envisage the BEV being accepted as as mainstream form o transport.
The batteries are an integral part of the tractors/cranes etc they aren't an additional load, with tractors they replace the ballast weights that are used.They are no different than the modern battery cars.
The development of heavy plant battery use is in it's infancy but when you consider the rapid increase in the Battery car market it won't be too far in the future,there is already a market for the smaller tractors that are on sale.
saxo1

Message posted by Colin2104/1/2022 at 4:04pm
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Quote: Originally posted by saxo1 on 04/1/2022
When the Nissan leaf was introduced in 2010 I expect a lot of people didn't envisage the BEV being accepted as as mainstream form o transport.
The batteries are an integral part of the tractors/cranes etc they aren't an additional load, with tractors they replace the ballast weights that are used.They are no different than the modern battery cars.
The development of heavy plant battery use is in it's infancy but when you consider the rapid increase in the Battery car market it won't be too far in the future,there is already a market for the smaller tractors that are on sale.
saxo1




I don't regard BEVs as anything like mainstream yet as they still only make up a tiny percentage of the overall car numbers. I admit they are gaining ground though.

I remember seeing those battery-powered tractors, I think it may have been on Countryfile, and they did seem good. Probably a near-equivalent of the little grey "fergies" that were once commonplace.

I don't think battery development is anything like as rapid as the rest of BEV development though. I worked in the battery charging industry back in the 1960s and although there has been some advance I wouldn't describe it as massive, and we are talking about a nearly 60 year time span. I would have thought by now that if it were possible we would have had batteries that would power a vehicle for 400 miles but which were no bigger than an ordinary car battery. I often wonder if such is actually physically possible. Can that much electrical energy be stored in such a small space as energy from petrol is stored, or is it simply not possible?


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Best Regards,
Colin


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